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Previews and Predictions: UFC 104

October 23, 2009

UFC 104 takes place this Saturday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. We’ve gotten into a habit here at the Gally Blog (thankfully a good one), where we preview the UFC Pay Per Views (PPV) and give our expert predictions. Hmmm “expert” should have had some quotations around it, but I’m far to lazy to do that. So just read that sentence aloud to yourself again and make the crunching rabbit ears, which is the International Douche Sign for “I’m making a quotation.” Go ahead, I’ll wait.

Flips open a magazine

Alright. Let’s continue.

I wasn’t sure if we’d be doing a UFC post so I contacted Logic the other day and the conversation went something like this:

music playing in the background as gimp dials the phone
Logic: Hello?
gimp: Hey man, it’s gimp.
background music can be heard, *And my daddy said “stay away from Juliet”*
Logic: Dude what the hell are you listening to? It sounds like…
gimp: Just a commercial or something. Not important. Stay focused here, you ADD riddled bastard. Are we doing a UFC preview and prediction post for this weekend or what?
music lyric: Cause you were Romeo – I was a scarlet letter, And my daddy said “stay away from Juliet”
Logic: Uh…yeah man. Uh…Dude are you listening to Taylor Swift?
gimp: Um….click, dial tone

With that said, let’s get to our picks…Right after we unveil our special guest poster, which totally has me at full mast. I’ll let Logic do the introduction. Take it away Los Logicos.

Logic: First off, before I get done predicting every winner of every fight and making you some GD money, I’d like to give a shout out to our “3rd mic” of the night, Vince Mancini of FilmDrunk. If you’re wondering if he’s qualified, well, Vince has been the MMA correspondent for WithLeather so he’s not just a one trick pony with movies. Anyway, you should be worrying if I’m qualified. Because clearly I’m just a drunk guy that got a password to a website.

Vince: Howdy, folks, this Vince Mancini from FilmDrunk here.  Your editors asked if I’d pick some fights for UFC 104 tomorrow and I agreed, as long as they let me use lots of swear words.  I fucking love fucking swearing so fucking much.  Almost as much as I like watching sweaty dudes wrestle.  Really gets the blood pumpin’, as long as there are no gays around.

Note: All odds come courtesy of BETUS, except for the Tibau-Neer fight, which came from Bodog.

Anthony Johnson (-350) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+250)

gimp: Yoshiyuki Yoshida? Both his first and last name start out with Yoshi. Is that like the American equivalent of naming your kid Kris Kristopher?

Johnson is coming off a knee injury, and a two fight win streak. Yoshida is coming off a 1 fight win streak. My natural instinct in fight picking is to always pick the big black guy. However, Yoshida is Japanese, which makes me think ninja. Which totally makes my decision that much harder. Stupid stereotypes clouding my judgment.

But seriously, Johnson is an up and comer. He’s 7-2, with one of those losses coming as the result of an illegal eye poke. Controversial losses aside, I’d look for Johnson to drop some bombs on Yoshida like it was 1945.

Not the type of bombs I was talking about, but eh...

Not the type of bombs I was talking about, but eh...

gimp’s Pick: Johnson by TKO in the 3rd Round. With a nickname like “Rumble” you have to knock people out.

Logic: Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida looks like it’s going to be a crazy fight. You know why? Because there is a black guy who is practically Kevin Garnett-dark nicknamed “Rumble” fighting a guy named Yoshi! If that isn’t one of the funniest things that’s said tonight, I’ll eat my hat. You guys do know who Yoshi is, right?

Watch out for his tongue. He may just suck you up and spit you out as an egg.

Watch out for his tongue. He may just suck you up and spit you out as an egg.

Anyway with Johnson at 7-2 he’s still a young pup but he does have the height advantage. I’m going with Rumble over the slightly more experienced Yoshi. Yoshi’s last “big fight” was against Koscheck and he got KTFO’d.

Logic’s Pick: Johnson via knock out in the 2nd.

Vince: Back in the day, if a fight went down between a black guy and a Japanese, the smart money would be on the Japanese, but things have changed since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar brought Karate to the inner city.  Anthony Johnson is absolutely gigantic at 170 pounds — he has the reach of a guy who’s 6’6″ and has been known to kick people in the face.  Meanwhile Yoshida’s biggest fight was against Josh Koscheck, who’s probably not as good a striker as Anthony Johnson, and we all know how that turned out (KTFO).

Vince’s Pick: Unless Rumble magically forgets his takedown defense, go with the favorite by KO in round one.

Joe Stevenson (-260) vs. Spencer Fisher (+200)

gimp: Oh Joe Daddy, how boring art thou? I find Mr. Daddy extremely boring and one dimensional. For the longest time now he has been billed as the guy with the best guillotine in the biz. Which is fine and all, but for fucksakes do something else. Sure he’s been working on his stand-up, but his last fight with his “improved” stand-up was a total snoozefest. I seriously considered watching baseball. That doesn’t get Spencer Fisher off the hook either….Haha hook, Fisher…Hahaha. No? Fuck off. His last fight was against Caol Uno, and it was extremely slow-paced. Uno being the wrestler, and Fisher being the BJJ guy equals a huge stalemate. Which for MMA purists is a real treat and something I would normally enjoy…If I hadn’t been drunk. What to expect from this fight? Hmmm. This one is going to go all 3 rounds, folks, so make sure you have a Big Gulp-sized drink poured and your Stadium Pal ready to flow.

gimp’s Pick: Fisher by decision. His Ju Jitsu and stand up should be enough to nullify Stevenson’s “improved” stand-up and his guillotine submission fetish.

Suck it Joe Daddy!

Joe Daddy is actually hemophiliac.

Logic: So now we have Joe Daddy Stevenson v. Spencer Fisher. I happen to be one of the people that love Joe Daddy. He is right on the brink of being great. He is 35-10 lifetime in MMA, but has lost to the likes of Neer, Penn, Ken-Flo and Diego Sanchez even though Stevenson beat a tough opponent in bad boy, Nate “Ima Fugg You Up Mothafuckafaggotbitch” Diaz. God, I hate that tool. Might be why I like Joe Daddy so much. I think Fisher is in that bottom tier (with no HUGE wins) where Stevenson normally wins.

Logic’s Pick: Stevenson via rear naked in the 3rd

Vince: Hard to call because they’re both the same type of fighter — well-rounded with solid jitz and hands, but with a tendency to try to box a kickboxer (it don’t work, son).  I’m taking Stevenson because he seems bigger and stronger and probably a better wrestler, but I don’t feel that confident about it, because Fisher’s probably a better striker.  Maybe Stevenson knows Mexican Judo?  Yeah, that’s going to be the difference, Mexican Judo.

Vince’s Pick: Stevenson by decision, ése.

Gleison Tibau (-130) vs. Josh Neer (even)

gimp: Oh yes, Tibau and Neer. Excuse me one second…I have some notes written down in the other room.

Walks away from the computer.

Clink clank Tails it is.

Walks back to computer.

gimp’s Pick: Neer by submission…Throws dart at the wall hits a piece of paper that has ARM BAR written on it…Definitely by way of an arm bar.

Logic: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer is next up, huh?  Tibau is a BJJ expert and Neer is an all around solid fighter. Both fighters have lost to Diaz.  Tibau lost to a dude named Melvin, whom Neer beat. I’m not sure, but I think I can beat up every single Melvin in the world. So with this one, it’s easy.

Logic’s Pick: Neer via ground and pound in the 1st

Vince: Two Jitz masters coming off losses (Tibau to Melvin Guillard, Neer to Kurt Pellegrino).  Tough to call, but I’m picking Gleison Tibau, mainly because “The Dentist” is a goddamned retarded nickname.

Cain Velasquez (-300) vs. Ben Rothwell (+220)

gimp: This matchup was originally slated to be Velasquez versus Shane Carwin to decide who would fight Brock Lesnar next for the Heavyweight Championship. However, Carwin is now set to face Lesnar at UFC 106. Luckily for us Ben Rothwell has become available with that huge implosion a few months back, known as the “Fall of Affliction”. I guess it was too much to pay your fighters and run a t-shirt company that sells its product for $80+ a pop. Because if I have $80 to spend it’s definitely going to be on a t-shirt cluttered with skulls and maybe some sort of winged creature makes wanking motion.

In all seriousness though, Rothwell is a beast. He has 30 wins, with 17 of them by knockout. Sure, Velasquez is an up and comer with a 6-0 record. Sure, he beat Cheick Kongo in his last fight. The problem is Velasquez is lacking in the stand-up department. In his fight against Kongo, Velasquez was visibly rocked with a shot. Granted he instinctively dropped down and went for the takedown. He’s a stronger wrestler, who can grind it out on the ground. But he’s lacking in the stand-up and most importantly in knockout power.

gimp’s Pick: Rothwell by TKO in the 1st Round.

Logic: The next match is a clash of the heavyweights. I tend to hate all heavyweights besides Brock Lesnar, because they tend just just stand and punch. If I wanted to watch boxing, I would. Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell is the match-up, and according to Gimp, Rothwell is an Affliction pick-up. Also according to Gimp, “I’d sex Brooke Hundley, too. I love ’em big. You know how you find the hole? You throw baby powder at them and fuck the wet spot!” Well, Velasquez is 6-0 which means he is solid, but relatively new. He did beat Kongo which is a little nutty to me. I can’t make a joke out of that. Kongo once beat up a Silverback Gorilla. Rothwell has the experience and size advantage (3 inches and 25 lbs.).

Logic’s Pick: Rothwell via decision.

Vince: Super tough to call.  People are questioning Velasquez’ standup because of the Kongo fight, but standup is kind of what Kongo does, besides being an enormous buff black dude and making peace signs to the air.  Experience could be the difference for Rothwell — who’s got wins over Roy Nelson and Kryzizizzztizzizzoff Sozzzsshczizzinsky, while Velasquez is quick to point out that he’s fought fewer times professionally than his father’s been deported. But if you’ve ever seen him fight, you know that Velasquez is smuggling some serious skills. And bottom line, no way I’m picking the tubby looking white dude over the Mexican guy who’s absolutely demolished everyone they’ve put in front of him.  Plus, again, Mexican Judo.

Vince’s Pick: Velasquez.

Lyoto Machida (-450) vs. Mauricio Rua (+325)

gimp: Machida’s fighting style is what many people describe as boring. It’s actually a smart fighting style, but try rationalizing that to a bunch bloodthirsty and drunken fans who want to see some carnage. Regardless, Machida is extremely precise and patient. He doesn’t push the pace, and he waits for his opponents to slip up before he attacks. Oh yeah he also enjoys the occasional drink of his own urine. Who am I to judge? I once ate some food that had fallen off my plate and onto the floor of a fraternity house. You know how dirty a frat house is? 5 second rules cease to exist.

Machida's secret to his success isn't milk.

Machida's secret to his success isn't milk.

photo comes by way of Sherdog via CagePotato

Machida’s opponent is “Shogun” Rua who  is coming off of a 2 fight win streak.  Which is great and all, until you realize that these two victories came against a man who is on the downside of his career and was trying to lay his claim in the world of competitive dancing, and a man who has been on the downside of his career for some time now and is possibly in the business of finding a nice retirement home. Of course I’m speaking of Chuck Lidell and Mark Coleman. 3-5 years ago those would have been impressive wins. In the year 2009, not so much.

I wouldn’t get my hopes up about this one making it to the 5th Round.

gimp’s Pick: Machida by 2nd Round TKO. I expect a slow paced 1st Round, which will frustrate Rua. He’ll come out swinging in the 2nd Round and get rocked by a Machida counter punch. FTW.

Logic: And the main event: Machida v. Shogun. I promised Vince he can make all the piss drinking jokes he can handle, but I need to know, does he at least chill it? I imagine piss tasting like well tequila and skunk sweat. Well I do like Shogun as a fighter. He lost to my old favorite fighter, Forrest Griffin, but beat Liddell and Coleman via TKO so he isn’t a pushover. If we look at fight history for this one, Machida has beaten everyone with his zen mastership* of the karate arts.

Logic’s Pick: Winner? Machida via TKO in the 1st.

*may or may not be a zen master.

Vince: Heavy underdog Shogun is looking to find the Chink in Lyoto’s armor.  Meanwhile, if there was a Chink in Lyoto’s armor, Lyoto would probably beat it up.  Because Lyoto came here to drink pee and beat up Chinks, and he already drank all of his pee.  Seriously though, I’m not *quite* sold on Lyoto Machida as an unstoppable ninja just yet — he came too close to getting caught in a triangle at the end of the Tito Ortiz fight.  But if he’s going to get beat, I doubt it’s going to be by an aggressive, straight-ahead striker like Shogun, at least not until the UFC allows head stomps.  God, wouldn’t that be awesome?  Head stomps make me cum harder than hooker nut stomps.

Vince’s Pick: Machida by decision, or possibly knockout or submission in one of the rounds.

gimp: Hope that wasn’t entirely useless. Big thanks to Vince from FilmDrunk for taking time out of his busy schedule of tripping peyote and watching movies to post with us.

Logic: Alright, so you know my picks are right. Once again, big ups to Vince from FilmDrunk for helping out on short notice. I hope you enjoyed the fights and I hope I made you some cashflow (not related to Ken-Flo), because I had to have done better than the last PPV.

One Comment leave one →
  1. October 23, 2009 3:49 pm

    I agree, finally! Our first good habit!

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